By Sun Hongyou and Kacee Ting Wong

Because of Hong Kong’s determination to seize business opportunities in Southeast Asia, the economic relationship between Hong Kong and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has attracted more media coverage. 

In addition to Finance Secretary Paul Chan Mo-po’s visit to Southeast Asia in March, Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu recently visited Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia, aiming to foster stronger economic ties with ASEAN as well as rallying support for Hong Kong to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).

There are many economic opportunities around the world, but those offered by ASEAN are more worthwhile. First of all, Lee predicts that the 10-member ASEAN and the wider region will become the biggest economic engine globally.  ASEAN has managed to deliver peace and economic growth to Southeast Asia, as the fifth-largest economy in the world with a combined GDP of $3 trillion (Kishore Mahbubani, The Asian 21st Century (Open Access Publications, 2022).

With a projected annual growth rate of over 5.5 percent, ASEAN is forecast to overtake the European Union and Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy by 2050 (US-ASEAN Business Council, What is ASEAN-Growth Projections). This projected growth is supported by a favorable diamond-shaped demographic pattern, political stability, the “China-plus-one” strategy adopted by many multinational companies, sustainable urbanization, improvements in educational sectors and an emerging middle class in more-developed ASEAN countries. The emerging ASEAN offers huge economic opportunities for Hong Kong enterprises. 

Secondly, most ASEAN members do not want to take sides in the US-China rivalry. They want Southeast Asia to remain a zone of peace, stability and economic prosperity. Economic development is their top priority. As a politically neutral bloc detached from geopolitical minefields, ASEAN can enable Hong Kong to seize economic opportunities in the region without national security considerations. A near-universal consensus suggests that the deep economic interdependence between China and ASEAN is too important to be undermined.
Even the Philippines, which has established close military ties with the US, does not want to reduce its economic links with China. In spite of territorial and historical disputes with China, Vietnam is eager to maintain close economic ties. Most importantly, Vietnam does not allow foreign countries to establish military bases on its territory. Like China, ASEAN’s pluralistic world view holds that Anglo-Saxon democracy is not the only way to achieve good governance.

Thirdly, the traditional business concept based on personal and family connections is embedded in the consciousness of many Chinese businesspeople in Southeast Asia. In addition to having deep economic roots in Hong Kong and other Asian markets, they have forged close personal ties across the region. 

For example, both Peter Woo Kwong-ching, former head of Hong Kong’s Wharf Holdings, and Edgar Cheng Wai Keung, head of Singapore’s Wing Tai Holdings, are married to daughters of late shipping tycoon Pao Yue-kong. “Sugar King” Robert Kuok sent one of his sons to study at a Catholic secondary school in Hong Kong. Sue Kuok, a daughter of Robert Kuok, is married to Malaysia’s Rashid Hussain, founder of RHB Bank. 
Fourthly, the economies of Hong Kong and most ASEAN countries are complementary as the latter are moving up the value chain and require more and more financial services provided by international financial centers. Even Hong Kong and Singapore do not compete with each other in all areas. As Terence Chong Tai-leung, an economics professor at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, pointed out, Hong Kong’s Northern Metropolis project can probably attract Singapore’s high-tech firms to invest (SCMP, July 24, 2023) in it. Hong Kong can also act as a bridge between ASEAN and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. Besides being a promising market for ASEAN, the area is an innovation powerhouse.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, Hong Kong is determined to drum up support for its entry into the RCEP. China’s top diplomat Wang Yi also threw his weight behind the city’s efforts to join this huge regional trade pact. As Lee pointed out, Hong Kong has already signed a free trade agreement with ASEAN, so it has very good foundations for its RCEP membership. Generally speaking, ASEAN nations do not want to shut Hong Kong out of the RCEP. But the positions of Japan, South Korea and Australia may thicken the fog of uncertainty hanging over the negotiation process. Hong Kong needs more patience to navigate in troubled geopolitical waters and negotiate a feasible path to full membership.  

During Lee’s recent trip, seven memorandums of understanding (MOU) were signed between Hong Kong and Singapore, 15 with Indonesia and 11 with Malaysia. To cite an example, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing signed an MOU with Indonesia’s stock exchange to promote cross-border listings, product development, and environmental, social and governance initiatives. Lee said the 33 bilateral agreements signed with the three countries were sufficient proof that Hong Kong was given exceptional attention.

When ASEAN was formed in 1967, some commentators called it a “talk shop”. During the Asian financial crisis of 1997, many Southeast Asian elites experienced a high degree of anxiety over the region’s economic future. But ASEAN has undergone an impressive metamorphosis in the past two decades. ASEAN is now an economic growth engine, and enjoyed an average 4 percent annual increase in GDP over the past decade. The RCEP, according to Mahbubani, has the potential to become the biggest free trade zone in the world.

Although the elites in the US believe that the 21st century will still be the American century, history has quietly turned a corner. Momentum is building for a transition to the Asian century. ASEAN is embracing the shifts in economic power from the West to the East. By adopting the “ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific”, ASEAN has made it clear that it does not want the anti-China containment policy of the US to divide the region (Kishore Mahbubani, op cit). Mahbubani predicts that the containment policy will fail (Kishore Mahbubani, Containment of China will only lead to US being isolated in the world: Global Times, July 22, 2023). Though Hong Kong still needs to rely on its traditional Western markets, the peaceful rise of the Chinese mainland and the emergence of ASEAN as a growth engine has offered huge economic opportunities to Hong Kong.

Sun Hongyou, an associate professor, is director of the Common Law Center of Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai; and strategic development and legal academic adviser of the Chinese Dream Think Tank. 
Kacee Ting Wong is a barrister, part-time researcher of Shenzhen University Hong Kong and Macao Basic Law Research Center, and chairman of the Chinese Dream Think Tank.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.
Chinese Dream Think Tank is a non-profit Hong Kong-based organization working with skilled volunteers, experts and professionals who are passionate about telling the China story well.

【CDTT Newspaper Article】Sun Hongyou, Kacee Ting：Emerging ASEAN offers huge opportunities for HK enterprises (China Daily HK Edition, 7 Aug 2023)
https://www.chinadailyhk.com/article/344462#Emerging-ASEAN-offers-huge-opportunities-for-HK-enterprises

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https://www.chinadailyhk.com/epaper/pubs//chinadaily/2023/08/07/16.pdf

This article is reproduced by Kwun Media with the consent of China Daily.

中國夢智庫｜ 「有大把商機」 特區與東盟

特區政府非常重視與「東南亞國家聯盟」(「東盟」)建立更緊密的經貿合作關係，近期媒體不斷報導特區與東盟的經濟發展進程。續2023年3月財政司司長陳茂波先生訪問東南亞外，特首李家超先生最近也對東南亞三個國家：新加坡、印尼與馬來西亞進行了訪問。特首此次訪問目的之一是加強特區與東盟之間的經濟聯繫，另一個目的是促進特區成為《區域全面經濟夥伴協定》(RCEP)成員地區。

當今世界處處有商機，「東盟」所呈現的機遇更是一大亮點。首先，特首李家超預測「東盟」 10個成員國與更廣泛的周邊地區將成為全球最大經濟引擎。根據馬凱碩(Kishore Mahbubani)(註1)，「東盟」一直默默地致力於貢獻東南亞地區的和平與經濟增長。現時，「東盟」已躋身世界第五大經濟體，GDP總額為3萬億美元(註2)。

接下來的幾年間「東盟」的預計年增長率將超過5.5%，到2050年她將超過歐盟與日本，成為僅次於我國、印度與美國的世界第四大經濟體(註3)。此項預期增長動力來源於利好的菱形人口結構、地區政治穩定、跨國眾公司傾向採取的「中國加一」戰略(註4)、可持續城市化、教育改善以及「東盟」較發達成員國的新興中產階級。「東盟」這個增長潛力為特區企業提供了大量商機。

其次，「東盟」的大多數成員國都不積極在美中競爭中站隊。東南亞地區保持繼續和平、穩定與經濟繁榮是大多數成員國的共同努力，謀求經濟發展才是正道。作為一個處於地緣政治雷區以外的政治中立實體，特區能在無國家安全考量的情況下，更好地抓緊「東盟」所帶來的商機。我國與「東盟」之間有著深層次的經濟相互依存關係，這幾乎是普遍性的共識，大家不容忽視。

再來，即使是與美國已建立密切軍事關係的菲律賓對減少與我國的經濟聯繫持遲疑態度。還有越南，儘管她與我國存有領土與歷史爭端，但越南渴望與我國保持密切經濟聯繫是顯而易見的事實。大家須注意以下事實，越南沒有允許他國在本國領土上建立軍事基地 。 與我國一樣，「東盟」是多元世界觀的擁護者，「盎格魯-撒克遜民主」(Anglo-Saxon Democracy)不是實現「善治」的唯一途徑。

第三，個人與家庭關係經營理念的傳承已深深扎根在東南亞許多華商心中。東南亞華商們除了在特區與其他亞洲國家擁有雄厚的經濟實力之外，他(她)們也與特區本地商業集團建立了密切個人聯繫，「九龍倉集團有限公司」前董事局主席吳光正先生與新加坡「永泰控股有限公司」主要負責人鄭維健博士都是已故「船王」包玉剛爵士的女婿(註5)。「亞洲糖王」郭鶴年先生(Robert Kuok)在1991年將他的一個兒子送進位於特區東區寶馬山上的一所天主教中學求學。「亞洲糖王」女兒郭璇光女士嫁給了創立「馬來西亞興業銀行」的馬來西亞人拉希德·侯賽因。

第四，因為「東盟」整體經濟正向價值鏈上游移動，需要其他國際金融中心提供更多的金融服務。所以特區與「東盟」大部分成員國的經濟更顯互補態勢。大家注意，單憑特區與新加坡的經濟體量，締造不出完整的世界經濟市場競爭力。正如莊太量教授正確指出，特區的「北部都會區發展」可以吸引新加坡的高科技公司前來投資(註6)。特區也可以作為「東盟」與繁榮的大灣區橋樑，大灣區除了可成為「東盟」市場外，它本身也是一個新興繁榮經濟火車頭。

再者，最重要的一點在於特區有決心、有魄力、有能力爭取加入RCEP。我國外交部長王毅先生也為支持特區加入龐大的RCEP作出了不懈的努力。正如特首正確指出，特區已與「東盟」簽署了自由貿易協定，這就是雙方進一步展開合作的良好基礎。顯而易見，「東盟」各國沒有將特區拒之門外的意思。但大家注意，日本、韓國與澳洲的立場可能會對特區加入RCEP談判進程增添不確定因素。在當下動蕩的地緣政治格局中前進期間，特區政府需更多保持耐心的態度，務求尋找出一條通向RCEP正式成員之路。

在特首最近的三國之旅中，特區與新加坡簽署7份諒解備忘錄、與印尼簽署15份、與馬來西亞簽署11份諒解備忘錄。其中，「港交所」與印尼證券交易所簽署了諒解備忘錄，兩所將攜手發展跨境上市，推動產品開發和環境、社會與管治措施。特首在結束訪問時表示與上述國家簽署的33項雙邊協定足以證明特區受到特別重視。

始於1967年「東盟」在成立時不被世人看好，一些評論員稱其為「吹水場」。在1997年亞洲金融危機期間，許多東南精英對「東盟」的經濟前景持負面焦慮態度，金融危機同時也導致印尼蘇哈托政權在的垮台。但「東盟」在過去二十年中經歷了令人振奮的蛻變，「東盟」已成為一個經濟增長引擎。在過去十年中，「東盟」的GDP平均每年增長4%。根據馬凱碩先生，RCEP有潛力成為世界上最大的自由貿易區(註7)。

儘管美國精英們還是認為21世紀仍將是「美國世紀」，但歷史已在轉角處掉了個頭，「亞洲世紀」發展勢頭已經成形。「東盟」現立足於世界經濟實力從西方轉向東方的百年大變局十字路口，通過「東盟對印太地區的濾鏡」(ASEAN Outlook on Indo-Pacific)，「東盟」明確表示不希望與美國主導的反華遏制政策與分裂印太地區政策為伍(註8)。馬凱碩先生還斬釘截鐵地預測，遏制我國的政策終將失敗(註9)。

雖然特區仍需依賴傳統的西方市場，但在我國的和平崛起、以及「東盟」有如長征五號系列火箭相助的經濟崛起背景下，特區存在大把商機。

事實與資料來源已核查

註 1: 維基百科「馬凱碩」available at: https://zh.m.wikipedia.org/zh-cn/%E9%A6%AC%E5%87%B1%E7%A2%A9
註 2: K. Mahbubani「The Asian 21st Century
Open Access Publications 2022 at p 76
註 3: US-ASEAN Business Council「What is ASEAN-Growth Projections
22.07.2019 available at: https://www.usasean.org/why-asean/growth#:~:text=With%20a%20projected%20annual%20growth,is%20supported%20by%20favorable%20demographics.
註 4: W Chen「中國加一」供應鏈落地研究18.06.2020 available at: https://buzzorange.com/techorange/2020/06/18/supply-chain-china-plus-one/
註 5: Michael Backman「The Asian Insider
New York : Palgrave Macmillan 2004 at p 11
註 6: Willa Wu and Ng Kang-chung「Hong Kong leader John Lee vows to seize business opportunities on Asean trip, lobby for support to join world’s largest free-trade pact
SCMP 23.07.2023 “ Like our Northern Metropolis project, it can probably attract Singapore’s high technology firms to come or invest,…” available at: https://amp.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3228635/hong-kong-leader-john-lee-vows-seize-business-opportunities-trip-asean-states-lobby-support-join
註 7: 同前, at p 76
註 8: 同上, at p 77
註 9: K. Mahbubani「Containment of China will only lead to US being isolated in the world
Global Times 22.07.2023 available at: https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202307/1294857.shtml

文：孫宏友
法學副教授
北京師範大學珠海分校普通法研究中心主任

文：丁煌
深圳大學基本法研究中心兼職研究員
經民聯港島支部主席，「中國夢智庫」主席
城市智庫成員
國際公益法律服務協會顧問委員會成員
全國港澳研究會會員

《中國夢智庫》是一間扎根特區的非牟利團體；與心存熱誠的資深義工、專家與職業專業人士們合作，攜手「說好中國故事」。

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